These last few days have been mixed fortunes for Morgan Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and even an even tougher roller coaster ride for Mugabe and his ZANU PF party.

Yesterday morning, against the run of play, Tsvangirai’s faction nailed down and won the nomination of Lovemore Moyo as Speaker of the House – a position that carries a lot more clout that people realise.

Mugabe’s party did not field a candidate, preferring to back the MDC Mutambara candidate, Paul Themba-Nyathi.

The vote split was:

99 MDC Tsvangirai MPs

7 MDC Mutambara MPs
4 ZANU PF MPs

The split indicates that even members of Mugabe’s party are prepared to go against the run of play – and even before Parliament is convened, they have shown their unhappiness with Mugabe.

This may be a huge win for the MDC – the party that won the popular mandate in Parliament, even if that majority is by one seat – but ZANU PF showed its hand a few minutes before the vote, arresting two MDC MP-elects.

One was released soon after, whilst the other remains in custody, reportedly being answerable to charges of rape. If you look at the numbers above, you will see the missing MP in that only 99 of the 100 seats held voted.

This morning, Mugabe opened Parliament, with the recognisable Western influence apparent – Mugabe arrived in a vintage motor vehicle and the street was turned into a parade ground as bodies of soldiers in their number one gear all stood to attention as their beloved leader inspected the turnout.

Mugabe’s inaugural speech (he has made so many speeches in the past that it was easy to know the content before he opened his mouth) was laced with the usual anti-West accusations and suggestions that the country’s economy was being driven deliberately by outside influence that was seeking regime change in Zimbabwe.

Blah, blah, blah… but it was interesting to hear that Mugabe had to raise his voice above the heckling that he received from the MDC ranks.

“You killed people – we won’t forget that.”

“ZANU PF is rotten.”

Reports said that Mugabe became annoyed and fairly ran through the last few sentences of his speech, before taking refuge on his seat.
Mugabe is not used to this sort of treatment – anywhere – and will no doubt return to his office or mansion wondering just what it will take to stop the MDC advance.

I believe that the momentum being built by the MDC will soon be unstoppable, and, hopefully without bloodshed, or the minimum thereof, Grace Mugabe’s words will come back to haunt her, when Morgan Richard Tsvangirai takes an oath of office within the hallowed halls of power – somewhere she intimated Tsvangirai would never even enter…

The opening salvos of government have been fired, and Mugabe’s party scored early with the arrest of two MDC parliamentarians, whilst the MDC were able to equalise very quickly.

Mugabe believes himself to be in a position of power, having appointed Ministers without constituencies on Sunday – and we half expect him to appoint a cabinet, which will consist of stalwart ZANU PF loyalists.

Then the real work starts, as the MDC seek fair representation not only in the house, but a say in the legislation passing through the house, knowing full well that Mugabe can shortcut the process and can issue Presidential decrees.

I expect the score to change rather quickly from hereon in…

Robb WJ Ellis
The Bearded Man