Mugabe’s foes - real or imagined - have a habit of falling off their mortal coils. Then there is the natural attrition of his owns allies and party members.

Just yesterday there were as yet unconfirmed reports that one of Mugabe’s Vice Presidents, Joseph Msika, had died. I do believe that the report being unconfirmed is part of the ZANU PF game - if they don’t admit to it, then they can ignore the consequences.

The death of Msika throws a huge spanner into Mugabe’s political mechanism.

“Tensions are high in ZANU PF as rumors swept the Zimbabwean capital of Harare that First Vice President Joseph Msipa, 85, died following a stroke earlier this year, and senior government officials struggled to confirm his death, leaving it to the rumour mills to feed the information starved nation.”

Among the names that have be put forward is that of Obert Mpofu, the Minister of Mines. Security around Mpofu has been increased and he has had his life openly threatened.

Other names include party chairman, John Nkomo - an Ndebele, as per the1987 Peace Accord signed between Mugabe and the late ZAPU leader. Joshua Nkomo.

“A state broadcasting source said official notification of the death had been received - but with instructions to embargo or withhold the news until certain conditions were met, leaving Zimbabwe in a state resembling the North Korean scenario were Communist leader Kim ll Sung is believed to have died a few moths ago, but the nation has not been informed.

Youth Minister Saviour Kasukuwere said Msika was “in a bad state but he is not dead.” Kasukuwere is now Robert Mugabe’s favoured runner spying on Mujuru and Mnangagwa factions.”

The jostling for position as Vice President is seen as crucial when it comes to the successor to Mugabe when he either stands down (very questionable) or goes to meet his maker.

The death of Msika strengthens the Mujuru camp. Vice President Joyce Mujuru is married to Solomon Mujuru, a former military supreme. The other candidate is Defence Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa, who would appear to be Mugabe’s choice.

An obvious move would be to elevate Mnangagwa to Vice President - but this is probably viewed as a little too forceful and could result in a huge rift in ZANU PF - and the Mugabe camp could do without further altercations.

And a move like this would leave the post of Defence Minister vacant, which could, in turn, cause more inter-party tension. It would, however make sense to pull a move like this quickly and now so that the resulting by-election would not be contested by either of the MDC factions.

Bur Mugabe is not known for moving anywhere near quickly - except when it comes to his own position (he had himself sworn into office within a few hours of ‘winning’ the one-man sham election) - so I don’t expect the situation to be resolved very quickly.

And another reason that Mugabe will be slow to resolve the Vice Presidency vacancy will be so that he ensures that all people involved know who is in charge. But any lethargy in resolution will add weight to the surviving VP’s camp…

It is a difficult situation - and one, which whilst Mugabe will not welcome it, will allow him to re-establish himself as the ’supreme leader’ that the party have decided to bestow upon him.

Robb WJ Ellis
The Bearded Man