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In the discussion following the publishing of my editorial “The Domino Effect”, one commenter came up with the three word phrase “catalyst for cataclysm”. I forwarded the phrase to a friend who writes poetry about Zimbabwe, and I will be sure to share with you the results of his endeavour.
In the meantime, the author of that phrase has asked me, more than once, to roll out the crystal ball and look at just where Mugabe’s rule is going.
So, although I don’t like foretelling anything, I am going to give it a crack.
In my mind there are three main possibilities in the immediate future for Zimbabwe regarding Robert Gabriel Mugabe.
1. A STATUS QUO
The first option is that nothing changes. He will continue to rule with reckless vigour, buy allegiances and loyalties from the armed forces, punish the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and, as deemed necessary he will rework the Constitution to sort his own endeavours, ensuring that his position is protected from the ‘evil West’ who would prefer to see him facing charges in the Hague for crimes against humanity.
In the event that this happens, Mugabe will pay little attention to regulations, election results and laws. He will continue along the same lines as he has for the past 28 years – changing statute retrospectively to protect his own position and the position of his allies in government – notably Mnangagwa and Mutasa.
He will also pay special attention to his armed forces chiefs, Perence Shiri (air aforce), Constantine Chiwenga (army), Augustine Chihuri (police) and Paradzai Zimondi (prisons), all of which make up the Joint Operations Command (JOC) that ostensibly make up the power behind the throne.
Mugabe will continue to harass and worry the MDC – if for nothing else than to ensure that they take their eyes off the ball, allowing Mugabe to perform his normal skulduggery.
This, too me, would be the worst possible scenario.
2. A CALCULATED HANDOVER
The second option also doesn’t bear thinking about either. This would entail a controlled and deliberate handover to Emmerson Mnangagwa, the man who reportedly is in control of the JOC.
Mugabe ensured that he had the MDC’s support in the last Constitutional amendment (before rudely pulling the rug out from under them by declaring a date for the election), and within that amendment was conferred the power to nominate his own successor. Without election, without popular mandate, and therefore, even though ‘constitutional’, without legality.
Mugabe would then stand down as President – in public eyes at least. I believe that he will do little more than take up occupancy in the wings – advising, bullying and playing chess with other people’s lives.
His position out of the spotlight would also be protected by his successor as Mugabe’s biggest fear is to be arraigned in The Hague.
Mugabe will want to be recognised by the African countries as the liberator, and the past 28 years he would want to be forgotten. He would like to be remembered along the lines of Nelson Mandela, but with Mugabe being the person he is, he would prefer to be bigger than the memory of Madiba.
3. A GOVERNEMENT OF TOTAL CHANGE
In my mind, this is the option of least probability, although it would be, for the more democratic minds in our midst, the most attractive.
In March, Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC won the majority in parliament. This is the first time that Mugabe’s party found themselves playing second fiddle to the new party in opposition.
Morgan Tsvangirai is largely believed to have won the Presidential election and let us assume, for a split second only, that Tsvangirai is given the opportunity to lead the country.
There is immense rebuilding to be done. Not necessarily only in a physical sense, but in a governmental sense. Confidence in the government has to be rebuilt – and there are those protractors that would prefer a rebuilding does not take place.
A new government would not necessarily mean a new slate, and there would be much to resolve.
4. CONCLUSION
I do not see Mugabe rolling over for anyone, unless it is on his terms and in his timing. Therefore, option 2 seems to be where we are headed.
Mugabe remaining anywhere near the government is a recipe for disaster as he is, as suggested, a catalyst for cataclysm.
Robb WJ Ellis
The Bearded Man
RSS 
Looks like cataclysm and catalyst are both going to self-sustain each other for a while...
Also political future of Zimbabwe will be decided more or less by Mugabe alone. Whether and how ICC will steps in is also uncertain.
But what will happen to the common people of Zimbabwe and inflation?
I have said it many time that for Zimbabwe to be a success, Mugabe needed to change nothing.
But he felt that he knew better and began to tinker.
That tinkering continues today as Mugabe now has to use the very law of the land to protect himself from ending up in The Hague.
I don’t believe that Mugabe has the required protection. The sad part for me is that being so old, any sentence of incarceration will be limited. But having him off the streets at any time is better than nothing.
The cataclysm is what we see unfolding now, as life standards in that once beautiful country fall to unbelievably low standards.
The demise of any country is not nice. Especially at the hands of a megalomaniac who knows not how to handle defeat and rejection...
But the good part there is (again, this sounds absurd) that it will send th clear signals to whoever has grand Mugabe-like designs in minds.
World history has seen worse dictators like Hitler and many others and their fate.
Yet we see more such dictators taking birth and unleashing worse terror.
I still can’t imagine in a small parts of globe such genocides are being carried out in our modern globalised world. In other parts West is indulging in wars and not peace talks...
We are not evolving politically...humanity at large is still suffering...
Modernity is not the antithesis of postmodernity. So, modernity is not about to end.
My take? We haven’t really been modernized enough to evolve into humane human beings.
And yet a possible rebellion from amongst the citizens would surely feature somewhere in the calculations. It is clear from the mandate (the right one) that Mugabe is unwanted. As someone from that nation, what are your views on the whole scenario of a possible armed revolt against the sham government?
What irks me is the reluctance that the free world have in attending to this problem - but then again - what is the true, correct and proper way of handling this?
Taking RGM out is not an option - there are many more just like him waiting.
An MDC government would find themselves ripped to pieces by the pro-ZANU feeling.
A coalition government would spend its entire life fighting amongst themselves, so that will never help the people.
Just shut it all down. And ask the last person leaving to please turn off the lights (which aren’t working anyway!).
It’s like saying, for a dictatorship to keep its head above water - longer, it has to be backed by a bigger geopolitical power.
In this manner, the dictatorship that sits in Zimbabwe right now will not last that long. China and Russia are only interested in the trade.
And lets face it, a US intervention is not likely to come too soon. (need I spell out the reasons?) I guess a little question of rigged elections counts too little in the wider geopolitical context.
Remember that US wants oil. And we all know where the oil lies.
It’s China that’s interested in Zimbabwe’s platinum.
In my book, I talk of the ”Hand of Reconciliation” speech that Mugabe made not long after Independence.
And we swallowed it. What I fail to understand is how we ignored the fact that he didn’t stand by his word, how we allowed ourselves to be hoodwinked.
I should have seen this coming. I was in the ZRP for 4 years and I had to ’renounce’ my British citizenship to remain in the police.
How come I didn’t work it out then?
The ogre that the West created is being allowed to continue with his bully-boy tactics - and the people that put him there wring their hands and moan.
And these are world leaders? (Or were, at least)
I’m just awestruck at the fact that the phrase which travelled from the Philippines to England and to US can have that much impact.
It deserves a good review, no less. :)
An incredible art. And an incredible heart.
I am travelling to the USA next year (Las Vegas, no less!) to address an event on my book ”Without Honour” and my reading of subsequent events in Zimbabwe, and although it is HUNDREDS of miles from Duane, he is willing to make the trip.
A good man - and a good friend.
What struck me most with Duane’s poem is are these two lines:
”...While relentless death is stalking
cronies all have roasts to carve...”
Need we say more about the inhumanity of it all?
We in the Philippines know cronyism like the back of our hand, since our government’s proven style is patronage politics.
Another thing struck me with Duane’s poem, that is something I’ve frequently read from you, as well:
You all think that sanctions are the answer.
Well, when Rhodesia ’illegally’ declared UDI on 11/11/1965, full economic sanctions were in place overnight. (Did you know that Rhodesia was the second country only to declare UDI from England - the first being the USA?)
But we had the infrastructure and the help of a few good men, and whilst sanctions remained in place for almost 15 years, whilst a bitter and bloody bush war was being fought (it costs money to fight a war) the economy of that country never fell. The GDP was healthy and the people, bar a few nasty individuals - like Mugabe, Chitepo and Nkomo* - were a happy bunch.
There was work, health, education, transport, money... everything that there isn’t today.
This isn’t a white vs black thing. This is that Mugabe doesn’t understand economics (which I struggle with too) and he also has the penchant of putting himself first - no matter what.
*A couple of years after Independence, when I was stationed at Esigodini, I had the chance to meet Joshua Nkomo. A huge man physically, but a personality that would take your breath away.
He stood for the Matabele people in mind, body and spirit.
Now I met Mugabe, but Nkomo I felt was a special individual - even if his army was responsible for some of the most horrendous atrocities during the Rhodesian bush war (including the shooting down of two unarmed Air Rhodesia Viscount airliners, filled with innocent civilians...).
Military intervention leaves dead bodies all over the place and serves no real purpose (ie. Iraq and Afghanistan) - and sanctions, even if they had been put in place, didn’t and won’t work...
”Necessity breeds invention
Fattest cats can improvise
What Zim needs is intervention
Not blind eyes that scrutinize”
I am waiting for a green light from Duane to publish the poem in it’s entirety here...
Zimbabwe has been a spectacle for precisely just that - spectators.
Should we put it up here, or give it it’s own space?
Now they are faced with hunger, sickness and poverty.
Knowing the people the way I do, I would think that a polulist uprising is not likely.
The people have spoken. The results speak for themselves. That Mugabe has bullied his way back into power is another thing entirely.
Zimbabweans are not violent people. They may cower and hide - but that is a thing of self-preservation more than anything else. They know what happens to people who buck the system. (Read my book ”Without Honour” about the genocide in Matabeleland in the 1980s...)
I think many Zimbabweans would be happy to wait out the death of Mugabe - then they will worry about the next person when it happens.
This is what happens when a people have been beaten into compliance.
But there’s also another insight on collective imagination. I come from the Third World where access to education is abysmal.
Given an ignorant and hungry populace that can just be behaviorally impassive to the constructs of oppression (for the huge part that they have become jaded and too tired to even think), tyrants aren’t too hard to be made.
The people of Zimbabwe had someone to look up to (conveniently for Mugabe, he wiped out the ruling White). So, in their eyes, Mugabe was a hero. If you aren’t educated enough to think critically, the hero turned tyrant will not appear evil in your eyes, especially if the hero-turned-tyrant is also a master of doublespeak and grandstanding rhetoric.
When a people are in need they look for a leader - and Mugabe was there and took that mantle.
Just a pity he didn’t do anything worthy of note with it...
Also, that it doesn’t have a critical ’educated’ population bracket that can mount a revolution via a good propaganda movement. But, I’m not sure if this is really the case.
Intelligent anti-Mugabe propaganda with the poor populace as target audience is what will change the Zimbabweans’ view of Mugabe.
But good luck if anyone can do this beyond 24 hours and still breathe! :)
The ICJ was successful with cases in Bosnia and Rwanda. And now ICC has charged al-Bashir.
Mugabe won’t be free for long. Unless he decides to settle on the moon! LOL
Given the choice, Mugabe may like to be brought to book in front of them.
Seriously, the concept of The Hague scares the hell out of Mugabe, but in reality, I cannot see it happening.
The free world is to forgiving.
But if we think of Mugabe as being the draconian figure of evil, we somehow feel that a greater cataclysm is still about to happen.
Mugabe, at this point is already a legal issue. He has ceased to be an ’untouchable.’ He is more apt to go the way of Al Capone, so to speak.
A legal precedent has already been established - just last week.
The International Criminal Court a.k.a. ’world court’ has charged Sudanese president General Omar al-Bashir for genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity.
This is Mugabe’s undoing. He cannot escape this new dragnet.
Yes, there will be a handover, though most likely to the JOC. As silly as it sounds, the democratic process showed that MDC did not win. So, Tsvangirai’s political career in the highest places isn’t likely to fly.
But, at the end of the day, Mugabe is headed for the The Hague.