Last year, when it was announced in March last year that Thabo Mbeki would be ‘mediating’ talks between the MDC and ZANU PF, I stated, from the outset, that Mugabe would use everything in his (considerable) power to get what he can from the negotiations, give as little away as possible, and stop the clock as often as possible.

This he did. Very well, in fact. To the point that he managed to negotiate the MDC’s support of Constitutional amendment 18, and very quickly thereafter, he withdrew from the talks as he had announced March 29 as the date of the ‘harmonised’ elections.

At the time he did this, he had not given one inch in the talks, and walked away with increased Presidential powers – including the right to name his own successor.

And, as if this is not enough, he has now entered talks with the MDC again – mediated by Thabo Mbeki (again) – and I don’t see there being very much difference in the result.

The MDC has made public their unhappiness at Mbeki being the mediator – and when you consider that Mbeki has made public his sympathy and support for not only Mugabe, but his ZANU PF party, you are not that hard pushed to wonder why.

But the MDC’s request for someone else to officiate over the talks has fallen on deaf ears… again.

But don’t be fooled. Mbeki himself has very little to do with the day-to-day haggling. Indeed, he has one of his ministers, Sydney Mufumadi, oversee the whole thing. Why be named as a mediator when all he ever seems to do is run up to Harare to hold hands with Robert Mugabe?

Why deny the MDC of a mediator that will actually be unbiased?

I suggested, more than once, a team effort by Ian Khama of Botswana, and Jerry Rawlings, past President of Ghana. But that too, fell on deaf ears – not that I expected too many people to be listening to my one voice.

I fear, as the negotiations stutter and stumble along – even if they have a two week deadline – that Mugabe is using the delays and the timeframe, to bolster his position at home.

Contrary to the Memorandum of Understanding signed last week, neither party has issued a statement denouncing the political violence… As I wrote on my main page, when were Zimbabwean politicians actually going to stand by their word?

It concerns me that Mugabe has been given free reign, and free rein, of the volatile situation in Zimbabwe, has control of the purse strings, and has a considerable following in the armed forces.

I cannot see Mugabe allowing himself to being shifted to one side in favour of the MDC. I think that the military JUNTA will have a lot to say about this.

The armed forces in Zimbabwe – the air force, the army, the police and the prison services – and the various wings of the ZANU PF powerbase – the war veterans, the youth militia and the youth brigades – all known for their barbarity and sadistic traits, await the word from Mugabe.

At that command, they will set about the civilian population of the country – regardless of race, colour, creed, religion, gender and religion (I doubt that age will be considered either), and instead of witnessing a civil war, I believe we will see a genocide that makes the likes of Rwanda and Burundi fade by comparison.

The world has seen too much death, too much violence and too much hatred.

I can only hope and pray that I am very, very wrong in my reading of the situation.

Robb WJ Ellis
The Bearded Man